South Africa is exposed to any prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, but the immediate threat is not a nationwide fuel shortage. It is a rise in prices that will feed through into transport costs, production costs, and already strained household budgets.

The country refines or manufactures only about 30% to 40% of the fuel it consumes and imports the rest. Of those imports, roughly 80% in some recent years has come from the Middle East, with most of the balance sourced from India. In practical terms, that means close to half of South Africa’s fuel consumption depends on supply linked to the Gulf, chiefly from Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, with smaller volumes from Saudi Arabia. On that basis, about 40% of total domestic fuel consumption is directly exposed to disruption around Hormuz.

That is a material vulnerability, but it does not yet amount to an immediate supply crisis.

South Africa’s crude reserves are at roughly a third of capacity, though that matters less in the near term while a key Cape Town refinery is offline for planned maintenance. In any case, the country sources much of its crude from West Africa rather than the Gulf.

There is also an important domestic offset. Sasol, which supplies roughly a third of South Africa’s petrol, diesel, and jet fuel from coal, remains fully operational and is unaffected by events in Hormuz.

That does not eliminate the country’s import dependence, but it does provide a meaningful buffer.

The official position from Pretoria is also notably calmer than some public commentary, with the Energy and Electricity Department saying last week, “South Africa’s fuel supply remains stable in the immediate term, and there is no basis for panic-buying" and that “[while] there may be isolated localised logistical challenges affecting the movement or availability of fuel in certain areas, these are operational in nature and do not constitute a national supply shortage”.

Importers, meanwhile, have been moving to secure supply from alternative markets. They have also introduced buying restrictions to reduce the risk of panic buying creating the very shortage the market is trying to avoid.

South Africa is therefore likely to absorb this shock first through price, not through empty service stations. Higher fuel costs will suppress demand and ease some pressure on physical supply, though at the cost of weaker consumer spending and higher operating costs across the economy. And even if disruption persists, the more probable outcome remains a period of more expensive fuel rather than a complete breakdown in supply.